In 2029 (23 years from now), an asteroid named "Apophis" will come so close to the Earth that it will pass between us and our communications satellites. "Whew" you say? Not really, because 7 years later in 2036 is will come a bit closer, actually striking the Earth. This isn't guaranteed yet, but the best minds studying this believe it will happen.
When it does, we will be fucked. Actually, it isn't big enough to be a global killer, but it will wreak some serious havoc. The entire West coast of the US will be wiped out, as well as the coasts of many other countries (It should strike the pacific ocean).
O.K. people. We need to make a plan for this. How can we stop this from happening? We need to get the best minds from DOU together and find a solution to this problem. Then when we do, I will contact NASA and JPL and tell them what to do.
So, if you have an idea (other than sending Bruce Willis up with a nuke), post it here.
Tommy
It does not really matter. We will have nuked the planet before then. 👿 👿
99942 Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a Near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029. However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. A number of impacts are still possible between the years 2036-2054 (April 13, 2036 being the most likely), keeping the asteroid at level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale. As of March 2006, this corresponds to a cumulative impact probability of 1 in 5,880.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_MN4
The Jargonaut wrote: It does not really matter. We will have nuked the planet before then. 👿 👿
99942 Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a Near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029. However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. A number of impacts are still possible between the years 2036-2054 (April 13, 2036 being the most likely), keeping the asteroid at level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale. As of March 2006, this corresponds to a cumulative impact probability of 1 in 5,880.
Remember, wikipedia is written by anyone who wants to write something for them. Actual astrophysicists of note seem to think that the odds are much greater that the asteroid will strike the Earth in 2036.
T
Not much I care about around the Pacific Basin. California will not be missed much either. Something good may come out of it anyway....No more touchy feely stupid laws...
{DOU}Charger wrote: Not much I care about around the Pacific Basin. California will not be missed much either. Something good may come out of it anyway....No more touchy feely stupid laws...
Yeah!!! Get rid of them damn civil liberties!! The US constitution is irrevelant anyway! I'm all for living in a theocracry!
When you make a statement like "No more touchy feely stupid laws..." you have to back it up with something. Otherwise people (like me) will think you are just beating a drum. [Anybody hear that? It was the sound of an ass being torn!].
T
P.S. I studied philosophy in college with an emphasis on arguementation.
You might want to quiet down there before Uncle SAM sends you to Iraq!
"The buddy system is essential to your survival; it gives the enemy somebody else to shoot at!!"
I won't get into the political debate but I will just say this about Apophis.
There are 30 years between now and the time that this thing could possibly hit the Earth.
We can not even forecast the weather more than a week out. Why would you believe that we could foresee this asteroid hitting a specific gravity keyhole and striking the earth?
The physics involved in this is incredibly complex, specifically concerning gravity. We do not even have a full understanding of what gravity is, much less how it will affect this object when it approaches the earth.
Remenber, you must also take into consideration the spin of Apophis when it hits this gravity keyhole. The gyroscopic effect could have an unforseeable effect on its trajectory. Not to mention that all of this depends on it actually hitting this keyhole, which is infinitesimally tiny compaired to the orbit and trajectory of this object.
Then again... would we really miss California?
*rimshot*
The Jargonaut wrote: Why would you believe that we could foresee this asteroid hitting a specific gravity keyhole and striking the earth?
The physics involved in this is incredibly complex, specifically concerning gravity.
These are the same people who put a man on the Moon, not Joe the weather guy. These astrophysicists really know their stuff. But it really all comes down to mathematics. You can't predict weather mathematically, but you can predict the motion and direction of an outer space object in this way.
It is true that Gravitation is the one of the 4 forces that we do not understand in nature, but we do uinderstand it's laws. We do not (Fully) understand why an object dropped on this planet will fall at a rate of 32 feet per second per second, but we do know that it will.
Tommy
Sorry I have to agree with Tommy on this. This is not a prediction baised science it is totaly math. We have sent objects all through space to meet celestial bodys. If you don't think it can be acurate take the example that we just had a craft meet up with a comet, disgharge an explosive, collect samples, and come back to Earth and hit the return target. Oh yeah gravity wells were used for acceleration and deceleration of the craft.
Weather is based on the fact that we have kept data from past weather and can take a "best guess" as to what will happen when certin other things happen. As the data base grows the predictions get better.
I still won't miss Cali....Toons, move east young man.
The mathematics of orbital mechanics is well defined and highly refined. Astronomers can predict the conjunction of the planets and occultations to within milliseconds. They can put spacecraft into keyholes only a few hundred meters wide and within a few seconds of predicted times. I remember the insertion of Cassini into Saturn orbit and they had some kind specific target zone they wanted to hit and they met the nominal requirements easily and they even canceled a planned correction manouver. They guided Stardust for 6 or 7 years through space to intercept a comet and collect dust. Then they guided it home and put it down in Utah within a kilometer of the planned location. It's just rocket science. 🙂
Mr. Galileo, Mr. Newton and Dr. Einstein all contributed to the science of our understanding of gravity and orbits. They were pretty bright doods. Astronomers can determine the orbit of an object to great accuracy after observing it's position over only a few days. Given a few weeks or months of observations the past and future track of a planetoid can be determined for decades. The degree of uncertainty increases over time but the time period is centuries. The computer models can even account for the influence of the other planets and their positions over time.
Remember, this is the science that put men on the moon in 1969 with a computer more primitive than the one in your cell phone or Gameboy. Certainly we have better models now and can predict where an asteroid will be in 30 years.
But we're fucked anyway. Iran will have the bomb in a few years and they will be toasting the middle east before 2015. It's harder to predict the actions of maniacs than it is to predict the steady planets.
QwazyWabbit wrote: ......
But we're fucked anyway. Iran will have the bomb in a few years and they will be toasting the middle east before 2015. It's harder to predict the actions of maniacs than it is to predict the steady planets.
You guys will love this one:
The complete NEO catalog so you can decide where to aim your asteroid umbrella. 🙂
BTW, isn't it said you never see the one that gets you?
I don't worry about things I can't do anything about. This is clearly one of those things. 😉
Hermskii
Clearly if such an event occured, which judging by the predictions of such distinguished members of society seems likely, we would all have a problem on our hands to some extent. I can't claim to know much about Physics or Astrophysics, but in the most obvious sense, we need to use a force greater than or equal to that of the same force propelling the meteor to change it's direction. Blowing it up probably isn't the best solution only because at this time I think we would have to risk damage to our atmosphere due to the fact that our technology does not have the needed range for use in outer space.
Well, call me a cynic but I am not exactly 100% certain that we put a man on the moon.
With that being said, I think I have a solution. Feed Tommy a boatload of Taco Bell Chimichangas and send him up there. Either he blows it up, or he propels it to a safe distance from the earth.
Tommy, the fate of the world is in your.... hands.
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